There are ample reasons why rural Saskatchewan will overwhelmingly support the Saskatchewan Party when the next election rolls around in 2020.
Sometimes voting patterns can be a matter of habit. Politicians are aware of this and it becomes the old adage in sales that it is far less expensive to maintain an old customer than attract a new one.
So it’s likely that Sask. Party rural candidates will be successful because they have been successful.
Notwithstanding that 11 of their 30 rural MLAs are still in their first term, rural Sask. Party MLAs average about nine years in office. Such familiarity is exceedingly helpful at the polls.
But obviously more critical to long runs in elected office is belonging to a party whose philosophy and policies are favourable to your electorate.
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Admittedly, this is a party that actually promised very little that was new in former premier Brad Wall’s last general election campaign in 2016. Nor did Scott Moe’s promise much while securing the Sask. Party leadership in January.
However, issues like reducing the education property taxes on agricultural land, or general support of agriculture and oil and mining that drive the rural economy are all part of a Sask. Party narrative that resonates well in rural Saskatchewan.
So does opposition to the federal Liberal government carbon tax that has been Premier Moe’s foremost issue.
Finally, it’s helpful that the Sask. Party’s campaign platforms, government policies and free-enterprise philosophy contrasts so much with its only real political rival, the NDP.
With little Liberal or Progressive Conservative presence in this province, the Sask. Party pretty much has that rural vote cornered.
Add all this up and one can expect rural Saskatchewan to deliver Moe and the Sask. Party another majority government in 2020. In fact, the government has pretty much assured this by deciding not to reduce the number of seats in the Saskatchewan legislature.
To do so would have meant having to reduce the current 30 rural seats because of rural depopulation.
However, there’s huge irony here: For all of the Sask. Party’s success in rural Saskatchewan, it’s failed in this area most historical critical to rural Saskatchewan.
Earlier this month, the government released Statistics Canada figures revealing a record Saskatchewan population of 1,117,240 – 1,488 more people in the first three months of this year, 11,691 more people in the past year and 157,806 more Saskatchewan people in the last decade.
That’s 48 consecutive quarters of growth in Saskatchewan, the “longest period of sustained growth since quarterly records were first published in 1971,” noted Economy Minister Jeremy Harrison.
This is surely a grand achievement for a province that’s defined itself by losing people to other provinces.
But it’s not really rural Saskatchewan that’s benefited by the province’s population boom.
StatsCan numbers also show that from July 2007 to July 2017, Saskatoon’s census metropolitan area population increased by 79,058 to 323,809 and Regina’s increased by 50,379 to 253,220.
That pretty much means 80 per cent of Saskatchewan’s growth has been in the two major cities, alone.
With much of the remainder of that growth in Moose Jaw, Prince Albert and other smaller cities, we haven’t seen the turnaround in rural Saskatchewan we’ve seen elsewhere.
And don’t expect one anytime soon.
Net interprovincial migration (those moving into Saskatchewan from other provinces compared with those moving out) was a minus 2,526 in the first quarter of 2018.
From 2014 to 2017, Saskatchewan saw net interprovincial losses of 2,552, 4,897, 5,451 and 9,397, respectively.
These are people leaving rural Saskatchewan for Alberta and elsewhere.
Obviously, one can’t fault the Sask. Party for not turning around something no government could turn around.
But it’s a reminder that not even the Sask. Party has been able to turnaround this reality.
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