We will have a new Saskatchewan premier next week but we will also have the same old financial problems.
Brad Wall’s successor will have the final say in addressing these matters. But with all the animosity emerging out of this leadership – not to mention differences of opinion on a lot of the key questions – getting policy consensus may be rather difficult.
The wisest move for the new premier would be to adopt the best ideas emerging out of the leadership contest.
But it will likely require going beyond what was discussed in the leadership debate.
However, let’s begin by exploring the biggest financial challenges and what the leadership candidates had to say about them.
Arguably, the most immediate issue will be whether to carry on the plan to have a balanced budget in 2020 or see the plan extended to 2021 or beyond.
This issue will determine spending for so many other critical issues.
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When asked how they would address the issue, both Alanna Koch and Tina Beaudry-Mellor said they would extend. Beaudry-Mellor argued that $140 million was needed and wanted to reinstate the provincial sales tax exemption on insurance.
However, Ken Cheveldayoff (who signed the Canadian Taxpayer Federation’s Protection Pledge committing to a balanced budget in 2019-20), along with Gord Wyant and Scott Moe, have pledged to continue with the 2020 balanced budget plan. (Moe also vowed to reinstate the PST insurance exemption.)
It will be difficult to find compromise for that next provincial budget that should be unveiled in the next couple months.
But unless the new premier is able to do so, the long-term issue of dealing with the $20.9-billion public debt that will increase to $24.6 billion by 2021 can’t be properly addressed.
Beaudry-Mellor noted Saskatchewan has the “lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the country.” That said, she, Wyant, Moe, Cheveldayoff and Koch agree a balanced budget must be a priority.
Koch advocated “efficiencies within government such as shared services models and back office consolidation” as a means of lowering public debt.
Similarly, all candidates favoured a heritage/sovereign wealth fund for any future natural resource windfalls. But all agreed balanced budgets and debt paydown had to come first.
Asked specifically about a proposed 3.5 per cent rollback of public sector wages and remuneration to get the government’s books in order, all stepped back from the Wall budget position of any specific target number.
That said, there was consensus to keep public sector wages in check – something that didn’t always happen in the Wall government years, which saw registered nurses receive a 36-plus per cent increase in one four-year contract.
What is clear is none of the candidates really see Crown corporation selloffs – in whole or part – as a wise strategy to balance budgets or reduce debt.
While the Wall government did occasionally toy with the notion, this would be a continuation of the ongoing Sask. Party government position of Saskatchewan keeping its Crown corporations.
It doesn’t seem that any of the candidates see reducing the 61 seats in the legislative assembly as part of the solution. Most skirted that issue, saying it was a matter for the next electoral boundaries commission the new premier will have to appoint.
Similarly, there’s no thought of rural municipal amalgamation – similar to what we’ve seen with health and school boards – to reduce government costs.
In fact, cuts to any government service or tax benefits were generally avoided in the five months of leadership debating.
The leadership hopefuls were divided on whether to maintain public ownership of the Global Transportation Hub.
However, there was little admission of how capital expenditures like the $1.9-billion Regina bypass have added to the province’s financial burden.
So successfully addressing the tough financial questions may require the new premier to go well beyond what was said in the leadership race.
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