As intriguing as Saskatchewan politics tends to be, exciting leadership races are a rarity.
So let’s take one last ballot-by-ballot look at that Saskatchewan Party leadership race that saw Scott Moe beat out Alanna Koch by 1,165 votes on the fifth and final ballot.
First ballot: Total votes cast, 17,159. Alanna Koch, 4,529 votes (26.39 per cent); Scott Moe, 4,483 (26.13 per cent); Ken Cheveldayoff, 4,177 (24.34 per cent); Gord Wyant, 3,696 (21.54 per cent); Tina Beaudry-Mellor, 226 (1.32 per cent), and; Rob Clarke 48 (0.28 per cent).
Less critical than the expected demise of Clarke, who had declared he was out of the race shortly after the ballots were printed, was how this ballot set the stage for the entire race.
Gord Wyant’s healthy 21.5 per cent total signified it would be a close race with four candidates. But by being fourth on that first ballot and with Clarke’s and Beaudry-Mellor’s totalling less than the 481-vote difference between Wyant and Cheveldayoff, the die was cast. Wyant would eventually follow Clarke and Beaudry-Mellor off the ballot.
The other critical factors on the first ballot were how close Koch and Moe were (46 votes apart) and how far Cheveldayoff was behind Koch (352 votes) and Moe (398 votes).
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Second ballot: 17,156 votes cast: Koch, 4,533, (26.42 per cent); Moe, 4,495, (26.2 per cent); Cheveldayoff, 4,202, (24.49 per cent); Wyant, 3,698, (21.56 per cent), and; Beaudy-Mellor, 228, (1.33 per cent)
The lion’s share of Clarke votes (25) went to Cheveldayoff – unsurprising, because Clarke endorsed Cheveldayoff before pulling out of the race. Moe got 12 Clarke votes compared with four for Koch, narrowing Koch’s lead to a mere 38 votes. Both Wyant and Beaudry-Mellor got just two Clarke votes, signalling the end to a disappointing run for her. As disappointed was Wyant, who could not gain the momentum he would need to stay in the race.
Third ballot: Total votes cast, 17,143. Koch, 4,598 votes (26.82 per cent); Moe, 4,544 (26.51 per cent); Cheveldayoff, 4,221 (24.62 per cent), and: Wyant, 3,780 (22.05 per cent).
Wyant did get the largest share (82 votes) of Beaudry-Mellor’s 228 votes, but it wasn’t enough to sustain his campaigning.
Interestingly, Koch received 65 votes from the only other woman candidate while Moe got 49 Beaudry-Mellor votes.
That actually and temporarily widened Koch’s narrow lead over Moe to 54 votes. Cheveldayoff only got 19 Beaudry-Mellor votes – not surprisingly, because their policies conflicted.
Fourth ballot: 14,989 votes cast: Moe, 5,980, (36.43 per cent); Koch, 5,591, (34.06 per cent), and; Cheveldayoff, 4,844, (29.51 per cent).
It was this ballot that caused the entire race to change, as Moe’s 54-deficit, third-ballot deficit behind Koch quickly turned into a 390-vote lead. He became the first to crack the 30-per cent barrier in march to the needed-to-win 50 per cent-plus-one.
Why did this happen? Moe picked up a whopping 1,436 of Wyant’s 3,780 votes.
Wyant had signalled during the campaign that he likely worked best with Moe. His voters took heed.
Koch did pick up 993 Wyant votes (compared with the 623 vtoes Cheveldayoff added from his Saskatoon MLA colleague).
But with 728 Wyant votes not redistributed because they only voted for the former justice minister on the preferential ballot, it was enough to turn the tables.
Fifth and final ballot: 14,989 votes cast: Moe, 8,075, (53.87 per cent); Koch, 6,914, (46.13 per cent).
Moe sealed the deal by receiving a massive 2,095 of Cheveldayoff’s 4,844-fourth-ballot votes. This was likely because they shared some common social conservative views on issues on abortion rights.
Koch only received 1,323 Cheveldayoff votes – less than the whopping 1,426 Cheveldayoff that only voted for him, causing their votes not to count on the last ballot.
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