The easiest prediction in 2018 is that it will be a pivotal year in Saskatchewan politics. There’s simply no choice in the matter.
It begins this month with the replacement of one of the most iconic politicians in provincial history.
There is much to be said about Premier Brad Wall – especially in his later years.
His loyalty to political allies, like former economy minister Bill Boyd, will be long criticized.
Wall has never been particularly great at looking objectively at those with whom he was politically close.
Certainly, the aftermath of the Global Transportation Hub and costs of the Regina bypass will be tarnishing footnotes to his political career.
His abilities as a financial administrator who allowed too many deficit budgets and allowed the annual deficits to get too high will be forever questioned.
The legacy of record public debt already has many accusing him of being a premier with more luck than skills.
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But a lot of that is coming from those who somehow view economic upswings (which Wall enjoyed for most of tenure) as just luck while economic downturns are somewhat exclusively bad government management.
While it’s absolutely true that Wall had nothing to do with the price of oil and potash (and likely should have put aside some of that money), it’s surely true that he sold the country on the notion that Saskatchewan had changed.
For however briefly, Saskatchewan under Wall become the place to be rather than the place to be from.
Whether it was by happenstance or not, one need not look any further than the dramatic rise in Saskatchewan’s population, now closing in on 1.2 million to see this reality.
His charisma, which translated into record popularity and record political wins for the Sask. Party, will not be easily replaced.
This takes us back to how politics in this province may very well pivot in 2018.
It isn’t just simply a matter of who replaces Wall – a formidable challenge in itself.
Certainly, contenders like Alanna Koch, Gord Wyant and Ken Cheveldayoff bring other and arguably better assets to the table.
In the case of all three, it would be far more experience in government at senior levels than Wall certainly had when he arrived.
Yet the challenge for all three – along with Tina Beaudry-Mellor and Scott Moe – will be providing the same unity-aspiring leadership we saw from Wall.
After the current Sask. Party leader took over from Elwin Hermanson in 2004, Wall was actually able to broaden the base he inherited from the rural-based former Reform Party MP.
Wall steered the party clear of social conservative issues and reached deep into Saskatchewan’s city suburbs for those huge victories in 2011 and 2016.
If there is one legitimate criticism of Wall – especially, in the past couple years – it’s that he somehow allowed that broad base of Sask. Party to retract.
But with the pre-Christmas announcement of 27,125 Sask. Party eligible to vote on Jan. 27, with its 2018 leadership contest and expected easy byelection wins in Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current, the Sask. Party will have momentum on its side.
But with larger deficit budgets culminating in tax hikes and service cuts in the 2017-18 financial plan, big wins in safe rural seats mean less.
The NDP has also started to show in 2017 that it was recovering in the cities.
However, somehow, either Trent Wotherspoon or Ryan Meili must move this party back towards the centre.
It will not be an easy task for either with both of them being seen as products of urban Saskatchewan and with Meili considerably further left.
In that sense, 2018 will be an equally pivotal year for the NDP. It must begin to show signs it’s also capable of governing an entire province.
It all makes for a big year in Saskatchewan politics in 2018.
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