It would seem counter-intuitive, but the job of Opposition leader in Saskatchewan may now be a lot harder than the job of premier.
That shouldn’t make any sense because the premier bears responsibility for tough spending decisions. Oppositions can’t even propose spending bills in the legislature.
And the burden of being premier is much more complicated than that, extending to virtually ever tough situation – some of which he inherits and some of which a premier has no control over.
For example, immediately after being selected Saskatchewan Party leader and premier, Scott Moe faced the aftermath of the Gerald Stanley verdict and the Humboldt Broncos bus crash. Both would have been exceedingly stressful for any leader.
Sandwiched around these events were a provincial 2018-19 budget and then the inherited problems of former cabinet Bill Boyd’s Environment Act charges and the ongoing controversies of land purchases at the Global Transportation Hub (GTH).
The above are inherited problems from the former premier Brad Wall’s administration.
Moe and the Sask. Party may claim this is a new administration but that really isn’t fooling anyone. Even if you are a new premier, you carry on with the baggage of your entire government.
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Maybe an opposition leader also inherits some baggage from the past when his party was in power, but the weight of that baggage is simply not comparable.
All this said, it very much seems that in Saskatchewan right now, it’s NDP Opposition Leader Ryan Meili struggling significantly more than Moe.
And those with even a rudimentary knowledge of politics will understand why.
For starters, while Moe competed with five others (notwithstanding Rob Clarke’s last-minute departure from the race) for the Sask. Party leadership and while it took five ballots including the first ballot in which Moe had less than 25 per cent support on the first ballot, he actually had the support of a majority of caucus members.
Meili’s only competitor was Trent Wotherspoon, but the now NDP leader had the support of only one other caucus member. And that split and tension is a defining element of the NDP of late.
In fairness to Meili, he has actually gone to great lengths to modify his policies to make them more palatable in Saskatchewan.
But for most of the past 50 years, the NDP has struggled with the reality that they are simply no longer Saskatchewan’s natural governing party.
Since the demise of the Tommy Douglas’s CCF in 1964, Saskatchewan has now spent more days under the rule of the right-wing alternative than under an NDP administration. This would include the last 10-plus years under the Sask. Party that enjoyed the biggest popular vote wins in the province’s history.
Add to the fact that this province did not elect a NDP MP for 15 years prior to the 2015 election. (And judging by the way the federal NDP caucus has handled Regina Lewvan Erin Weir’s situation, the federal party may be in for another drought.)
The point being, this is no longer an NDP province and what tolerance there has been for NDP governments in the last 50 years has been a result of them being comparatively pragmatic.
Meili may have modified his positions, but he still considered rather left wing.
He supporters a $15-an-hour minimum wage (a tough sell in rural Saskatchewan that has a lot of small businesses).
And Meili has expressed some level of support for a carbon tax of some sort.
Moe has been lobbying hard against the carbon tax and in support of the Trans Mountain pipeline opposed by the B.C. NDP government. And both those positions seem wildly popular with provincial voters.
Sometimes, premiers simply do have more favourable policy positions.
And that’s likely why Moe’s job seems a bit easier right now.
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