Reform UK is soaring and Britain’s Establishment is panicking

A Reform victory could spark a confrontation between an elected government and elites used to setting the rules

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If Donald Trump’s narcissistic shenanigans aren’t enough to satisfy your appetite for political drama, you can turn to events in the U.K. for a chaser. There, one of the oldest and most successful parties in the world is arguably fighting for its life. And to add extra spice, there’s a strong element of personal ambition and (alleged) opportunism in the mix.

Founded in 1834, the U.K. Conservatives have been a major force for almost two centuries. You might reasonably call them the natural governing party. But now, they’re struggling to hold off Reform UK, a right-wing populist challenger that’s only officially existed for five years. In fact, recent polling puts Reform in first place, eight points ahead of the incumbent Labour government and nine points ahead of the Conservatives.

As for personal ambition, the most spectacular defection to Reform is Robert Jenrick, the man who came second to Kemi Badenoch in the 2024 Conservative leadership race. But there are questions about his authenticity, with reasonable people wondering how much of what he purports to believe is real and how much is a function of his desire to climb the greasy pole.

Certainly, Jenrick’s positions have travelled a long way since the 2016 referendum, when he opposed Brexit. And while he can’t hope to take the Reform leadership from Nigel Farage, he’s young enough—44 versus Farage’s 61—to contemplate a scenario where he becomes Farage’s successor. Whether that’s a prize worth aspiring to is very much an open question.

There are lots of plausible reasons to believe Reform’s current popularity won’t translate into corresponding general election success. Labour might replace the historically unpopular Keir Starmer as prime minister. After a slow start, Conservative leader Badenoch might grow on people. And as a general election approaches, voters might become increasingly wary of Reform, suspecting that it’s just too risky.

But a Reform fade isn’t preordained. Indeed, a polling prediction updated in mid-January shows them emerging from an election as, by far, the largest party, with 274 predicted seats, just 52 short of an absolute majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. As the same model gives the Conservatives 99 seats, the burning question would be just how much support a minority Reform government could expect from that quarter.

So let’s consider a scenario where Farage enters 10 Downing Street as prime minister and finds enough Conservative support to pursue at least some controversial elements of the Reform agenda. An example of this would be leaving the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) and replacing it with a British Bill of Rights, the primary purpose being to reclaim parliamentary sovereignty over immigration, especially the illegal variety. Although the extent to which this would make a material difference is disputed, the issue of leaving the ECHR evokes powerful emotions on both sides of the argument.

In the event of Reform being in a position to go down this path, it would be a case of the elected government versus the Establishment, the latter being defined as those groups in society accustomed to exercising institutional influence.

Yes, the Establishment may once have been small-c conservative in orientation, but that’s no longer the case. Not by a very long shot.

A study published last autumn lays out the particulars, breaking the Establishment into three subgroups: there’s the Lecturing class, such as schoolteachers, university academics and culture/media workers; the Professional class, comprised of legal and medical professionals; and the Security class, meaning police officers and members of the armed forces.

Whether you look at how people voted in the 2024 general election and the Brexit referendum, or what positions they take on a whole range of hot-button issues, only the Security class can be categorized as right of centre. Otherwise, the Establishment is decidedly left of centre, and the Lecturing class is especially so.

What does this portend in the event of Nigel Farage becoming prime minister? The CEO of Electoral Calculus, the company that did the study, has this to say: “If Reform UK were to form a government, expect some sparks to fly as the Establishment intelligentsia react to ideas which are a very long way from their ideological centre.”

The idea of Farage as prime minister would be grossly offensive to many of these people. He is, after all, the guy primarily responsible for pushing Brexit—which they detest—into the mainstream. And if a Farage government sought to leave the ECHR and replace it with a British Bill of Rights, their vigorous opposition could be pretty much guaranteed.

Although unelected, the Establishment has a lot of levers at its disposal. There’d surely be no shortage of drama.

Troy Media columnist Pat Murphy casts a history buff’s eye at the goings-on in our world. Never cynical – well, perhaps a little bit.